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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-06-12T16:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-12T16:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46808/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 with preference to the east and seen more narrow with a brighter bulk and disconnected bulk/shock in STEREO Ahead COR2A with brighter bulk to the east-northeast and shock extending from the southeast to the north in association with a filament eruption near N00E35 erupting near 2026-06-12T16:15Z, best seen in SDO AIA composite imagery using the sum of 211/193/171 Angstroms and as well in GOES SUVI/SDO AIA 304 Angstroms. This CME, seen due east and northeast in COR2A, is seen overlapping the previous CME: 2026-06-12T15:38Z which is seen to the southeast and which is a separate eruption.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-14T17:33Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/46812/1
Model Inputs:
2026-06-12T16:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-15.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=977.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2026-06-12T19:53Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-06-14T17:33Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =27.1 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-13T16:14Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-16T05:10Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-15T09:18Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-16T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260612_195300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 47.02 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-12T18:32Z

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